NOAA Updates 2020 Hurricane Forecast

Coast Guard Boat

Well, that didn’t take long. NOAA has meaningfully pushed up its forecast of named storms by at least 31%, from just 3 months ago.

Almost without exception, we get the tail, shoulder or rump of one or two of the dozen or so that form up in the Atlantic between the Caribbean and Africa and bring so much destruction and misery with them as they thunder west and north…  and Hurricane season still has months to go.

We live on an island.  This column is about that.

Tidal Surges

For Islanders, as bad as the winds will be (more on that below), it is the tides and tidal surges that will do most of the damage, which is why even these tails that go by every year leave so much trouble behind. The storm tide is added to the astronomical tides. And when those waves hit something solid, they generate force dozens of times more powerful than wind of the same speed. Andrew generated a storm tide of 17 feet. Camille in 1969? 24 feet. And of course, there was Sandy who just sat there, at high tide. During a full moon…

Add to that the population growth in our area and the increase in the value of homes and it can spell either “an absolute disaster” or “they were prepared.”

A hurricane is, in the words of scientists, an organized rotating weather system that develops in the tropics.  Technically, it is a “tropical cyclone” and it is classified as one of three states, with hurricanes being further classified into levels of destruction…

USCG hurricane aircraft reported Andrew, Katrina and Dorian had generated winds over 200mph at various times of the storms…

When looking at Cat-5s’, no one is saying that there is no difference between a storm that brings 160-mile-per-hour winds and one that reaches 190. The force of the winds goes up with the square of the velocity. In layman’s terms, that means a hurricane with 200-mile-per-hour winds has four times — not just double — the force of one with 100-mile-per-hour winds.

Are You Ready For the Glancing Blow?

Look, if a Category-4 or -5 gets up here like in 1938, there are no levels of preparedness except evacuation.  A storm surge like Camille’s basically means that everything “south of the highway”, as real estate agents like to classify the choicest properties on Long Island, is gone for all intents and purposes. But what if the glancing blow like Ivan’s in 2004 or, Earl, who came by earlier in 2012, came in head-on? How can you be ready?

Before the Storm Arrives

  1. Have a family action plan – if you’re at caught at school or at work, who do
    you call? To grandmother’s house we go?
  2. flash lights working? Canned goods and water supplies? Cash?  Portable
  3. Where ARE you going to move the boat?  Don’t even THINK about staying
    on her… (more on that next week!)
  4. How about your prescription medicines?  A first-aid kit is WHERE…!?

During the Storm

  1. Have the radio or TV on.If power goes out and you don’t have a portable
    radio, I’d get the kids in the car and “to grandmother’s house we go…!”
  2. Propane tanks on your property?Shut them off, completely.
  3. Turn the refrigerator up all the way and don’t open the door idly.
  4. Fill the bath tub with water.  How about the big spaghetti pot?  Anything that
    can hold water and keep it clean.
  5. If ordered to evacuate, do so. Immediately. And tell someone where you are
  6. When evacuating, don’t drive across flowing water.2’ of flowing water can
    carry your car away.  Yes.  Only 2’ of moving water.  Turn around and go
    another way.  There is no other way – call 911 or the US Coast Guard.

After the Storm

  1. If you’ve been ordered to evacuate, don’t go back until the area is declared
  2. If you see someone that needs rescuing, unless the threat of loss of life is
    imminent, call 9-1-1.
  3. See standing water?Do you know if any power cables lie in it?
  4. Never use candles and other open flames indoors.  Keep the flashlight at your

BTW, if you are interested in being part of USCG Forces, email me at [email protected] or go directly to the D1SR Human Resources department, who are in charge of new members matters, at DSO-HR and we will help you “get in this thing…”


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