Cloudy Forecast: How Will Economic Worries Sway East End Tourism Season?

So many on the East End are wondering what kind of summer season it will be. That is a prime question among hoteliers, restaurant owners, and tourism officials. And with good reason. Gas prices have been soaring since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. Same with food prices. Inflation is rising and employment on the Island has been sluggish, and no one is certain about the near future.

One of those who braved the elements at the Timber Point course was Mitch Pally, the CEO of Discover Long Island, the Island’s largest tourism and promotion agency. He put a positive spin on things.

“I think Long Island has a unique opportunity,” Pally told Dan’s Papers, during a break from his “so-so” round. “A lot of people who would have left Long Island” because of the rising costs “will decide to stay here for the summer. We have a lot going on here.”

Discover Long Island sponsored a golf outing with the U.S. Open trophy on site for photos to help promote the U.S. Open being held for the sixth time at the Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, June 15-21.

Hotels, restaurants and clubs have been looking forward to the summer season all year. While many in the tourism industry express optimism, they say they are aware of what may be an uphill climb this summer. Some say they are depending on the fact those who can afford a weekend of even a night at some of the posh East End hotels will not think too much about higher gas prices.

“We’re looking to fill up,” said Ryan Hackberry, general manager at the Maidstone Hotel in East Hampton. “I think this area is uniquely lucky. The people who choose to stay here are mostly unaffected” by higher gas and other consumer prices.

Room rates in the summer can range from $1,400 to $1,500, Hackberry said. The Maidstone expects to fill up for the U.S. Open, he said.

Much the same is expected at the equally posh Americana Hotel in Sag Harbor, said general manager Christine Priore. According to travel reviews, a night can go for as much as $500.

“We’re booking up already for the summer season,” Priore told Dan’s Papers. But as for how the season will go, Priore acknowledged, “I can’t predict.”

Of course, there are far less expensive places to stay. For the outdoor types, there is camping at Hither Hills State Park, in Montauk. For those who reserve early, the cost is a mere $35 a day.

One of Long Island’s most popular tourist spots in Splish Splash, a 96-acre water park with over 30 rides, in Calverton. People are advised to buy tickets online to avoid crowds, and that the best times to visit are weekdays. Food is considered expensive, according to online reviews.

Mike Bolick, general manager at Gurney’s Montauk Resort and Seawater Spa — one of the best known of the East End’s hotels — said he believes higher fuel costs will keep many people from traveling long distances, and they are more likely to stay on Long Island.

“We look at these trends, and they tell us that the season is shaping up to be strong,” Bolick told Dan’s Papers. “We’re optimistic, despite all the craziness out there.”

John Betts, owner of Shippy’s Restaurant in Southampton, has been making use of promotions to fill tables. This past winter, he staged Neighborhood Nights Out to different section of the town, offering 20 percent discounts on other-than pre-fix means, and not including drinks.

The place was packed, Betts, a former president of McDonald’s Restaurants of Canada.

“Summer is about events,” Betts told Dan’s Papers. Shippy’s rents out its beer garden and is already in talks with the United States Golf Association about partnering for the U.S. Open.

Higher gas prices, Betts said, should keep people closer to local restaurants.

“The summer is going to be just fine,” Betts said.

But the economic picture is cloudy.

Inflation in the New York metropolitan area is about 4%, in early spring, higher than the 4.3% nationally. Gas prices on the Island are about $4.45 for regular in early spring, also up from just over $3 earlier this year.

Long Island’s unemployment rate is about 4.2%, up slightly from 4.1% earlier this year, but below the 4.7% national average. Leisure and hospitality employment is down about 1.8% but generally rises during the summer months. Economists will keep an eye to see if this trend continues this summer.

“This spells a fluctuating, tight labor market in the region,” said Shital Patel, principal economist for the New York State Labor Department.

Anoop Rai, a professor of finance at Hofstra University, told Dan’s Papers that rising gas prices and inflation will have at least a short-term negative impact on Long Island, and an impact on East End tourism, perhaps more pronounced next summer than this one.

“There may not be such a major impact this summer,” Rai said. “But maybe more so next summer as inflation continues to rise.”