Critical Mass: 'Oppenheimer' Tops Bill McCuddy's 2024 Oscar Predictions

When they open the last envelope on Sunday, March 10 and we’re sitting in Canoe Place with other film fanatics, Neil Rosen, Lisa Rosman and I won’t be surprised when someone says Oppenheimer. Sorry, it’s ‘da bomb.’

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The fact that an important film made money lets the Academy actually reward a movie people have seen. That doesn’t happen every year. I’d be thrilled if Maestro or The Holdovers upset. Past Lives or The Zone of Interest would be cool shockers. But it’s not gonna happen. On our PBS/All Arts show the three of us picked it to win. And that was filmed before the SAG and Producers Guild both blew it up. Again, I apologize. The bomb references are just too alluring.

So could there be ANY surprises Oscar Night? I’d love to see Nyad star Annette Bening swim past Lily Gladstone or Emma Stone for Best Actress. Her husband Warren Beatty has been working the phones for the last six weeks I’m sure. (For him that’s three calls — he’s chatty.) And she’s kind of a Hollywood legend. That helped Jamie Lee Curtis surprise last year.

As Diana Nyad, Bening trained in pools for over a year. Voters know that. And they love real stories. On top of all that, it was on Netflix so there’s really no excuse for them to have missed it. Unless they can’t hit the “Play” button. Or didn’t want to. Jodie Foster as her tough-talking coach/buddy would be great as Supporting Actress but she’s won already, Bening hasn’t. Even after five nominations. She’s definitely due, but this may not be the year.

And if there’s a REAL upset, I’d love Carey Mulligan for Leonard Bernstein’s long-suffering wife in Maestro but again, I’m probably a ‘cult of one.’

Cillian Murphy was fine as ‘Oppy’ and the SAGs agreed. I’d still like to see Paul Giamatti win for The Holdovers. The scenario all awards season has been that he was snubbed for his last Alexander Payne film Sideways in 2004. He was considered a shoo-in this year for that oversight. And he had the momentum for a while. But now it seems like Murphy will be part of an Oppenheimer, ahem, blowout. Again, apologies.

East Hampton’s Robert Downey Jr. is part of that for his turn in the film as an evil senator. He’ll almost certainly pick up Best Supporting Actor. He’s been nominated twice before, once for Chaplin and then for donning blackface in Tropic Thunder, but never won. (By the way, try to make Tropic Thunder in 2024. Nope. But that’s another column)

Christopher Nolan is kind of a lock for directing Oppenheimer, but that category started splitting about 15 years ago and if there’s an upset this year it would go to Yorgos Lanthimos (say THAT five times fast) for Poor Things. A lot of people love that movie. I am not one of them.

The Zone of Interest gets that weird bump for being nominated as “Best Picture” and “International Feature” and so it will easily win in the latter.

Barbie supposedly got snubbed in several categories, actress in a leading role and best director, so Greta Gerwig and her husband Noah Baumbach should easily win “Writing Adapted Screenplay” for the pink phenom. Even though a lot of people are scratching their heads. ‘Adapted’ from WHAT? A box? With a doll in it? Should have been original screenplay, so that will go to The Holdovers or Anatomy of a Fall.

Animated Feature Film is either Spiderman: Across the Spider-verse or The Boy and the Heron. The documentary Oscar is probably going to 20 Days In Mariupol. Great, right? Okay, nobody has seen it. But it really is good. It’s on Prime Video so you can go watch it now. Or after March 10.

And Best Editing? Cinematography, Makeup or Animated Short? Even Academy voters just wing it in some categories. Samuel L. Jackson told me once that he picked the top five categories and let his housekeeper fill out the rest of the ballot. Don’t do that.

In an Oscar Pool, you’ve got a few bombs of your own to drop. Oh jeez. Someone stop me.

The 96th Academy Awards airs on ABC Sunday, March 10 at 7 p.m.